Smart Signals & Alerts

Mastering TRAK AI Intelligence

Smart signals are the core output of TRAK AI's intelligence engine—contextual, confidence-scored insights that help you understand market behavior in real-time. This page explains every signal type, how to interpret confidence levels, and how to configure alerts that match your trading style.

Signal Taxonomy: The Complete Framework

TRAK AI generates signals across five primary categories, each designed for different trading applications:

Signal Category Overview

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│               TRAK AI SIGNAL CATEGORIES                      │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│                                                              │
│  1. DIRECTIONAL SIGNALS     → Trend & momentum bias         │
│     • Bullish / Bearish / Neutral                           │
│     • Time horizon: Hours to days                           │
│                                                              │
│  2. EVENT-DRIVEN SIGNALS    → Specific market events        │
│     • Whale moves, Exchange flows, Liquidity shocks         │
│     • Time horizon: Minutes to hours                        │
│                                                              │
│  3. REGIME SIGNALS          → Market state classification   │
│     • Trending / Ranging / Volatile / Quiet                 │
│     • Time horizon: Days to weeks                           │
│                                                              │
│  4. SENTIMENT SIGNALS       → Community & narrative mood    │
│     • Social trends, Fear/Greed, Narrative strength         │
│     • Time horizon: Hours to days                           │
│                                                              │
│  5. RISK SIGNALS            → Exposure & volatility alerts  │
│     • Volatility spikes, Liquidity risk, Concentration      │
│     • Time horizon: Real-time to days                       │
│                                                              │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

1. Directional Signals

Purpose: Identify trend and momentum opportunities

Directional signals provide your primary trading bias—whether the market favors longs, shorts, or no clear direction.

Signal Types

Signal Name
Description
Typical Duration
Best Use Case

Strong Bullish

High conviction upward move expected

3-7 days

Primary long setup, scale-in opportunity

Moderate Bullish

Positive bias with some uncertainty

1-3 days

Confirm with other analysis before entry

Neutral

No clear directional edge

N/A

Avoid new positions, wait for clarity

Moderate Bearish

Negative bias, caution advised

1-3 days

Reduce exposure, consider hedges

Strong Bearish

High conviction downward move expected

3-7 days

Exit longs, consider shorts

Example: Strong Bullish Signal

When to Act on Directional Signals

Trade Immediately (within 30 min):

  • Confidence ≥80%

  • Multiple supporting signals in same direction

  • Clear risk/reward setup (R:R ≥ 2:1)

Wait for Confirmation:

  • Confidence 60-79%

  • Mixed supporting signals

  • Unclear invalidation level

Skip:

  • Confidence <60%

  • Contradicts your broader analysis

  • Risk/reward unfavorable

2. Event-Driven Signals

Purpose: Capture tactical opportunities from specific market events

Event-driven signals alert you to discrete actions that often precede price moves: large transfers, exchange flows, or sudden liquidity changes.

Signal Types

Signal Name
What It Detects
Typical Response Time
Trading Application

Whale Transfer

Large wallet movements (>$1M)

<2 minutes

Monitor for accumulation/distribution

Exchange Inflow

Tokens moving TO exchanges

<5 minutes

Potential selling pressure (bearish)

Exchange Outflow

Tokens moving FROM exchanges

<5 minutes

Potential accumulation (bullish)

Liquidity Shock

Sudden depth changes (>15%)

<1 minute

Volatility expected, adjust stops

Smart Money Flow

Proven whale wallets accumulating

<10 minutes

Follow institutional positioning

Coordinated Activity

Multiple events aligned

<3 minutes

High-conviction setup

Example: Exchange Outflow Alert

Interpreting Exchange Flow Signals

Outflows (Bullish Bias):

  • Tokens leaving exchanges → reducing sell pressure

  • Often precedes price appreciation (3-7 day window)

  • Strongest when >200% above average flow rate

Inflows (Bearish Bias):

  • Tokens entering exchanges → potential selling

  • Often precedes distribution or price weakness

  • Strongest when >200% above average flow rate

Pro Tip: Combine flow signals with price action. Outflows + price consolidation = high-probability bullish setup.

3. Regime Signals

Purpose: Understand the current market environment

Regime signals classify the market state, helping you choose appropriate strategies. Different regimes favor different approaches.

Market Regimes Explained

Regime
Characteristics
Ideal Strategies
Avoid

Trending

Clear directional movement, higher highs/lows

Trend following, momentum trading

Mean reversion, range trading

Ranging

Sideways price action within bounds

Range trading, sell high/buy low

Breakout trades, trend following

Volatile

Large swings, high uncertainty

Reduce size, wider stops, options

Large positions, tight stops

Quiet

Low volume, compressed volatility

Patience, wait for catalyst

Forcing trades, overtrading

Example: Regime Change Alert

Using Regime Signals

Best Practice: Match your trading style to the current regime.

In Trending Markets:

  • Focus on momentum and breakout signals

  • Trail stops to capture extended moves

  • Ignore mean-reversion signals

In Ranging Markets:

  • Focus on support/resistance bounces

  • Take profits at range extremes

  • Ignore breakout signals (likely false)

During Regime Transitions:

  • Exercise extra caution (false breakouts common)

  • Reduce position sizes temporarily

  • Wait for confirmation (2-3 days of new regime behavior)

4. Sentiment Signals

Purpose: Gauge community mood and narrative strength

Sentiment signals measure social media activity, community engagement, and narrative trends. These often lead or confirm price moves.

Signal Types

Signal Name
What It Measures
Best Used For

Social Spike

Rapid increase in mentions/engagement

Early trend detection, momentum confirmation

Sentiment Shift

Change in positive/negative ratio

Contrarian indicators, trend reversals

Narrative Strength

Coherence and spread of key narratives

Long-term positioning, theme trading

Fear/Greed Index

Market emotion on 0-100 scale

Contrarian signals at extremes

Influencer Activity

Key opinion leader positioning

Retail sentiment proxy

Example: Sentiment Shift Signal

Contrarian vs Confirming Sentiment

Use Sentiment as Contrarian Indicator When:

  • Fear/Greed index at extremes (<10 or >90)

  • Everyone talking about same trade (usually late)

  • Sentiment disconnected from fundamentals

Use Sentiment as Confirming Indicator When:

  • Sentiment aligns with technical/on-chain data

  • Early narrative formation (not yet consensus)

  • Sentiment shift precedes price move (leading indicator)

5. Risk Signals

Purpose: Manage exposure and avoid blow-ups

Risk signals alert you to dangerous market conditions, portfolio concentration issues, or volatility spikes that require defensive action.

Signal Types

Signal Name
What It Detects
Recommended Response

Volatility Spike

Sudden increase in price swings

Widen stops, reduce size

Liquidity Drain

Order book depth decreasing

Avoid large orders, expect slippage

Concentration Risk

Portfolio too exposed to single asset

Rebalance, diversify

Correlation Breakdown

Assets moving unexpectedly

Hedge effectiveness reduced, review positions

Flash Crash Risk

Thin liquidity + stop clusters

Move stops away from obvious levels

Example: Volatility Spike Alert

Risk Signal Best Practices

Take Risk Signals Seriously:

  • These are defensive, not offensive opportunities

  • Acting late can mean major losses

  • Better to be safe early than sorry later

Response Hierarchy:

  1. High Severity: Act immediately (within minutes)

  2. Medium Severity: Adjust within 1 hour

  3. Low Severity: Review and plan response

Common Mistakes to Avoid:

  • Ignoring risk signals because you're in profit

  • Assuming "it won't happen to me"

  • Fighting the market during risk events

Confidence Scoring Deep Dive

How TRAK AI Calculates Confidence

Every signal includes a confidence score (0-100%). Understanding what drives this score helps you trade better.

Confidence Components

Confidence Tier Guidelines

Confidence
Win Rate (Historical)
Position Size
Action Required

90-100%

80-90%

75-100% of normal

Trade immediately, high conviction

80-89%

70-80%

60-75% of normal

Trade with standard risk management

70-79%

60-70%

40-60% of normal

Confirm with other analysis first

60-69%

50-60%

25-40% of normal

Small speculative position only

50-59%

45-55%

10-25% of normal

Watch-only, wait for better setup

<50%

<45%

0%

Do not trade on this signal alone

Important: Confidence scores are calibrated to historical accuracy. An 80% confidence signal should win ~70-80% of the time in similar market conditions.

Alert Configuration: Advanced Setup

Creating Your Perfect Alert System

TRAK AI's alert system is highly customizable. Here's how to configure alerts that match your trading style:

Basic Alert Setup

Alert Strategy Templates

Template 1: High-Conviction Day Trader

  • Signal Types: Directional + Event-Driven

  • Confidence: ≥80%

  • Assets: Watchlist only (5-10 liquid assets)

  • Frequency: Max 5/hour

  • Delivery: Telegram + Mobile Push (instant)

Template 2: Conservative Swing Trader

  • Signal Types: Directional + Regime

  • Confidence: ≥85%

  • Assets: BTC, ETH only

  • Filters: Require 3+ supporting signals

  • Frequency: Max 2/day

  • Delivery: Email digest (morning + evening)

Template 3: Risk Manager

  • Signal Types: Risk alerts only

  • Confidence: ≥70%

  • Assets: Entire portfolio

  • Filters: High + Medium severity only

  • Frequency: Unlimited (critical)

  • Delivery: All channels (instant)

Template 4: Sentiment Contrarian

  • Signal Types: Sentiment shifts

  • Confidence: ≥65%

  • Assets: All major caps

  • Filters: Only extreme fear/greed levels

  • Frequency: Max 3/day

  • Delivery: Telegram

Advanced Alert Logic: Boolean Combinations

Creating Complex Alert Rules

For advanced users, TRAK AI supports boolean logic for multi-condition alerts:

Example: "Perfect Storm" Bullish Setup

Example: "Early Warning" Risk Alert

Signal Lifecycle & Expiration

Understanding How Long Signals Remain Relevant

Not all signals have the same "shelf life." Here's how to know when a signal is stale:

Signal Type
Typical Validity Period
Expiration Conditions

Directional

1-7 days

Price invalidation level hit, conflicting signal

Event-Driven

1-24 hours

Event fully priced in, reversal detected

Regime

7-30 days

Regime change signal issued

Sentiment

6-48 hours

Sentiment reverses, narrative changes

Risk

Until resolved

Risk condition normalizes

Visual: Signal Decay

Best Practices: Building Your Signal Strategy

10 Rules for Signal Success

  1. Focus on High-Confidence Signals: 75%+ for trading, <75% for research only

  2. Combine Signal Types: Directional + Event-Driven = strongest setups

  3. Respect Risk Signals: Always override offensive signals when risk is high

  4. Track Your Performance: Use TRAK AI's signal history to see what works for YOU

  5. Adjust for Market Regime: Different regimes favor different signal types

  6. Set Realistic Alert Limits: 5-10 high-quality alerts/day better than 50 noise

  7. Review Confidence Calibration: Check if your actual win rate matches TRAK AI's predictions

  8. Don't Chase Every Signal: Quality > quantity, wait for your edge

  9. Use Alerts, Not Constant Monitoring: Let TRAK AI watch the market while you live your life

  10. Provide Feedback: Thumbs up/down helps TRAK AI learn your preferences

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